Evaluation of probabilistic photometric redshift estimation approaches for the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST)

Many scientific investigations of photometric galaxy surveys require redshift estimates, whose uncertainty properties are best encapsulated by photometric redshift (photo-z) posterior probability density functions (PDFs). A plethora of photo-z PDF estimation methodologies abound, producing discrepant results with no consensus on a preferred approach. We present the results of a comprehensive experiment comparing 12 photo-z algorithms applied to mock data produced for The Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time Dark Energy Science Collaboration. By supplying perfect prior information, in the form of the complete template library and a representative training set as inputs to each code, we demonstrate the impact of the assumptions underlying each technique on the output photo-z PDFs. In the absence of a notion of true, unbiased photo-z PDFs, we evaluate and interpret multiple metrics of the ensemble properties of the derived photo-z PDFs as well as traditional reductions to photo-z point estimates. We report systematic biases and overall over/underbreadth of the photo-z PDFs of many popular codes, which may indicate avenues for improvement in the algorithms or implementations. Furthermore, we raise attention to the limitations of established metrics for assessing photo-z PDF accuracy; though we identify the conditional density estimate loss as a promising metric of photo-z PDF performance in the case where true redshifts are available but true photo-z PDFs are not, we emphasize the need for science-specific performance metrics

Photometric redshifts for the next generation of deep radio continuum surveys - I: template fitting

We present a study of photometric redshift performance for galaxies and active galactic nuclei detected in deep radio continuum surveys. Using two multi-wavelength datasets, over the NOAO Deep Wide Field Survey Boötes and COSMOS fields, we assess photometric redshift (photo-z) performance for a sample of 4; 500 radio continuum sources with spectroscopic redshifts relative to those of 63; 000 non radio-detected sources in the same fields. We investigate the performance of three photometric redshift template sets as a function of redshift, radio luminosity and infrared/X-ray properties. We find that no single template library is able to provide the best performance across all subsets of the radio detected population, with variation in the optimum template set both between subsets and between fields. Through a hierarchical Bayesian combination of the photo-z estimates from all three template sets, we are able to produce a consensus photo-z estimate which equals or improves upon the performance of any individual template set

Evaluation of probabilistic photometric redshift estimation approaches for The Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST)

Many scientific investigations of photometric galaxy surveys require redshift estimates, whose uncertainty properties are best encapsulated by photometric redshift (photo-z) posterior probability density functions (PDFs). A plethora of photo-z PDF estimation methodologies abound, producing discrepant results with no consensus on a preferred approach. We present the results of a comprehensive experiment comparing 12 photo-z algorithms applied to mock data produced for The Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time Dark Energy Science Collaboration. By supplying perfect prior information, in the form of the complete template library and a representative training set as inputs to each code, we demonstrate the impact of the assumptions underlying each technique on the output photo-z PDFs. In the absence of a notion of true, unbiased photo-z PDFs, we evaluate and interpret multiple metrics of the ensemble properties of the derived photo-z PDFs as well as traditional reductions to photo-z point estimates. We report systematic biases and overall over/underbreadth of the photo-z PDFs of many popular codes, which may indicate avenues for improvement in the algorithms or implementations. Furthermore, we raise attention to the limitations of established metrics for assessing photo-z PDF accuracy; though we identify the conditional density estimate loss as a promising metric of photo-z PDF performance in the case where true redshifts are available but true photo-z PDFs are not, we emphasize the need for science-specific performance metrics

Euclid preparation: X. The Euclid photometric-redshift challenge

Forthcoming large photometric surveys for cosmology require precise and accurate photometric redshift (photo-z) measurements for the success of their main science objectives. However, to date, no method has been able to produce photo-zs at the required accuracy using only the broad-band photometry that those surveys will provide. An assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of current methods is a crucial step in the eventual development of an approach to meet this challenge. We report on the performance of 13 photometric redshift code single value redshift estimates and redshift probability distributions (PDZs) on a common set of data, focusing particularly on the 0.2−2.6 redshift range that the Euclid mission will probe. We designed a challenge using emulated Euclid data drawn from three photometric surveys of the COSMOS field. The data was divided into two samples: one calibration sample for which photometry and redshifts were provided to the participants; and the validation sample, containing only the photometry to ensure a blinded test of the methods. Participants were invited to provide a redshift single value estimate and a PDZ for each source in the validation sample, along with a rejection flag that indicates the sources they consider unfit for use in cosmological analyses. The performance of each method was assessed through a set of informative metrics, using cross-matched spectroscopic and highlyaccurate photometric redshifts as the ground truth. We show that the rejection criteria set by participants are efficient in removing strong outliers, that is to say sources for which the photo-z deviates by more than 0.15(1 + z) from the spectroscopic-redshift (spec-z). We also show that, while all methods are able to provide reliable single value estimates, several machine-learning methods do not manage to produce useful PDZs. We find that no machine-learning method provides good results in the regions of galaxy color-space that are sparsely populated by spectroscopic-redshifts, for example z > 1. However they generally perform better than template-fitting methods at low redshift (z < 0.7), indicating that template-fitting methods do not use all of the information contained in the photometry. We introduce metrics that quantify both photo-z precision and completeness of the samples (post-rejection), since both contribute to the final figure of merit of the science goals of the survey (e.g., cosmic shear from Euclid). Template-fitting methods provide the best results in these metrics, but we show that a combination of template-fitting results and machine-learning results with rejection criteria can outperform any individual method. On this basis, we argue that further work in identifying how to best select between machine-learning and template-fitting approaches for each individual galaxy should be pursued as a priority

Euclid preparation: X. The Euclid photometric-redshift challenge

Forthcoming large photometric surveys for cosmology require precise and accurate photometric redshift (photo-z) measurements for the success of their main science objectives. However, to date, no method has been able to produce photo-zs at the required accuracy using only the broad-band photometry that those surveys will provide. An assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of current methods is a crucial step in the eventual development of an approach to meet this challenge. We report on the performance of 13 photometric redshift code single value redshift estimates and redshift probability distributions (PDZs) on a common set of data, focusing particularly on the 0.2pdbl-pdbl2.6 redshift range that the Euclid mission will probe. We designed a challenge using emulated Euclid data drawn from three photometric surveys of the COSMOS field. The data was divided into two samples: one calibration sample for which photometry and redshifts were provided to the participants; and the validation sample, containing only the photometry to ensure a blinded test of the methods. Participants were invited to provide a redshift single value estimate and a PDZ for each source in the validation sample, along with a rejection flag that indicates the sources they consider unfit for use in cosmological analyses. The performance of each method was assessed through a set of informative metrics, using cross-matched spectroscopic and highly-accurate photometric redshifts as the ground truth. We show that the rejection criteria set by participants are efficient in removing strong outliers, that is to say sources for which the photo-z deviates by more than 0.15(1pdbl+pdblz) from the spectroscopic-redshift (spec-z). We also show that, while all methods are able to provide reliable single value estimates, several machine-learning methods do not manage to produce useful PDZs. We find that no machine-learning method provides good results in the regions of galaxy color-space that are sparsely populated by spectroscopic-redshifts, for example zpdbl&gt; pdbl1. However they generally perform better than template-fitting methods at low redshift (zpdbl&lt; pdbl0.7), indicating that template-fitting methods do not use all of the information contained in the photometry. We introduce metrics that quantify both photo-z precision and completeness of the samples (post-rejection), since both contribute to the final figure of merit of the science goals of the survey (e.g., cosmic shear from Euclid). Template-fitting methods provide the best results in these metrics, but we show that a combination of template-fitting results and machine-learning results with rejection criteria can outperform any individual method. On this basis, we argue that further work in identifying how to best select between machine-learning and template-fitting approaches for each individual galaxy should be pursued as a priority

Euclid preparation. X. The Euclid photometric-redshift challenge

Forthcoming large photometric surveys for cosmology require precise and accurate photometric redshift (photo-z) measurements for the success of their main science objectives. However, to date, no method has been able to produce photo-zs at the required accuracy using only the broad-band photometry that those surveys will provide. An assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of current methods is a crucial step in the eventual development of an approach to meet this challenge. We report on the performance of 13 photometric redshift code single value redshift estimates and redshift probability distributions (PDZs) on a common set of data, focusing particularly on the 0.2 − 2.6 redshift range that the Euclid mission will probe. We designed a challenge using emulated Euclid data drawn from three photometric surveys of the COSMOS field. The data was divided into two samples: one calibration sample for which photometry and redshifts were provided to the participants; and the validation sample, containing only the photometry to ensure a blinded test of the methods. Participants were invited to provide a redshift single value estimate and a PDZ for each source in the validation sample, along with a rejection flag that indicates the sources they consider unfit for use in cosmological analyses. The performance of each method was assessed through a set of informative metrics, using cross-matched spectroscopic and highly-accurate photometric redshifts as the ground truth. We show that the rejection criteria set by participants are efficient in removing strong outliers, that is to say sources for which the photo-z deviates by more than 0.15(1 + z) from the spectroscopic-redshift (spec-z). We also show that, while all methods are able to provide reliable single value estimates, several machine-learning methods do not manage to produce useful PDZs. We find that no machine-learning method provides good results in the regions of galaxy color-space that are sparsely populated by spectroscopic-redshifts, for example z >  1. However they generally perform better than template-fitting methods at low redshift (z <  0.7), indicating that template-fitting methods do not use all of the information contained in the photometry. We introduce metrics that quantify both photo-z precision and completeness of the samples (post-rejection), since both contribute to the final figure of merit of the science goals of the survey (e.g., cosmic shear from Euclid). Template-fitting methods provide the best results in these metrics, but we show that a combination of template-fitting results and machine-learning results with rejection criteria can outperform any individual method. On this basis, we argue that further work in identifying how to best select between machine-learning and template-fitting approaches for each individual galaxy should be pursued as a priority